Post: #1

Last Update: Jan 18 -4.928%
VALUE: 926.000 USDBALTIC DRY INDEX (BDIY:IND)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?tick...&x=15&y=11

The Baltic Dry Index, a non-speculative freight index is considered an accurate indicator of future economic activity. In the lead up and during the 2008 economic crisis the index had steadily dropped. Presently the index has been steadily dropping since the start of 2012 and has dropped to the October 2008 levels.


"The BDI is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It measures the demand to move raw materials and precursors to production, as well as the supply of ships available to move this cargo. Consumer spending and other economic indicators are backward looking, meaning they examine what has already occurred. The BDI offers a real time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand. Unlike stock and commodities markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players. The trading is limited only to the member companies, and the only relevant parties securing contracts are those who have actual cargo to move and those who have the ships to move it."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27720.html

"The index has fallen for 19 days in a row, down almost 50%, its largest drop since the harrowing period of Q4 2008."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/baltic-dry...nuary-2009



BDI charts here:
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_b..._index.htm
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"Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Baltic Dry Index Falls Nearly 20% in Two Days
The Baltic Dry Index, which some use as a proxy for the outlook for global manufacturing, has been falling since late June, not long before the commodities bubble burst in July, and has been in retreat since then. What is particularly worrisome is its steep dive in the last two days, despite Herculean efforts to get the banking system operational.

The index has long been seen as a good leading indictor of future economic production levels because it charts the cost of freight movements in 26 of the world’s biggest shipping lanes of “dry” materials, such as coal, iron ore and grain which feed into the production of finished goods some weeks or months ahead."
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/b...n-two.html

Posted on January 9, 2009 by Greg
Baltic Dry Index Dropped Below 1,000 in 2008
Read more: Baltic Dry Index Dropped Below 1,000 in 2008 | Believe All Things http://www.believeallthings.com/2524/bal...z1jPBpi89N

"The Baltic Dry Index, the benchmark for commodity shipping costs, fell below 1,000 for the first time in six years as the lack of credit curbed global trade and shipowners threatened to shun orders.
The index, watched by banks including UBS AG as an economic indicator, fell 66 points, or 6.3 percent, to 982 points, the lowest since Aug. 8, 2002. The gauge has dropped 89 percent this year, driving down the combined market capitalization of the 12- member Bloomberg Dry Ships Index, led by Athens-based Diana Shipping Inc., to $5.5 billion from $32 billion a year ago.
“You are getting very, very close to the cost of just crewing and running a ship,” Richard Haines, a senior director at London-based shipbroker Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., said in an interview today. “It can’t go much lower than this without owners deciding they don’t want their ships employed.”"

Read more: Baltic Dry Index Dropped Below 1,000 in 2008 | Believe All Things http://www.believeallthings.com/2524/bal...z1jPBGm3SR

According to Answers.com, the index is:
A shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures changes in the cost to transport raw materials such as metals, grains and fossil fuels by sea. The Baltic Exchange directly contacts shipping brokers to assess price levels for a given route, product to transport and time to delivery (speed). The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that measure different sizes of dry bulk carriers (merchant ships) – Capesize, Supramax and Panamax. Multiple geographic routes are evaluated for each index to give depth to the index’s composite measurement . . .
Changes in the Baltic Dry Index can give investors insight into global supply and demand trends. This change is often considered a leading indicator of future economic growth (if the index is rising) or contraction (index is falling) because the goods shipped are raw, pre-production material, which is typically an area with very low levels of speculation. Because the supply of large carriers tends to remain very tight, with long lead times and high production costs, the index can experience high levels of volatility if global demand increases or drops off suddenly. The Baltic Exchange also operates as a maker of markets in freight derivatives, a type of forward contract known as FFAs (forward freight agreements) that are traded over-the-counter.3

Post: #2

Another index echoing the Baltic Dry Exchange is the HARPEX. It tracks future economic activity in terms of container ship activity.

"Investopedia explains 'HARPEX Shipping Index'
The HARPEX index is considered a suitable indicator of global economic fleet shipping activity since it tracks changes in freight rates for container ships over broad categories. This index is slightly different than the better-known Baltic Dry Index that tracks freight costs for dry bulk ships that usually carry bulk cargoes and raw materials such as coal, ore and grain."
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/harp...z1jPNUgjkm

Post: #3

seriously!

Post: #4

Put that in perspective.

i

Post: #5

Ignob  Wrote:

Put that in perspective.

i

Good find Ignob, thanks:

"The index has fallen for 19 days in a row, down almost 50%, its largest drop since the harrowing period of Q4 2008."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/baltic-dry...nuary-2009

Edit: adding to my OP - thanks again Ignob

Post: #6

Looks like 2008 again soon. I wonder how they will get the bailouts this time?

Post: #7

LoP Guest  Wrote:

I wonder how they will get the bailouts this time?

In the manner(s) that it's likely to hurt the most.

Post: #8

it's a measure of globalism, which is not necessarily an issue for the US.

Post: #9

What is in the stores and at the ports is all that there will be for a long while to come.

Stock up on EVERYTHING.

If you have kids or grandkids, buy clothes and shoes in the next 3 sizes for each season.

Post: #10

Pi  Wrote:

What is in the stores and at the ports is all that there will be for a long while to come.

Stock up on EVERYTHING.

If you have kids or grandkids, buy clothes and shoes in the next 3 sizes for each season.

There tends to be shortages when shipping slows down this much. I won't downplay your warnings, it is prudent and forward-looking. The BDI is a direct indicator of some economic woes.

Post: #11

Is it 2008 all over again or something?

Post: #12

..hey amerika....

Post: #13

Foodnipple  Wrote:

Is it 2008 all over again or something?

A pattern is repeating, indications would point to that as a strong possibility.

Post: #14

Pi  Wrote:

What is in the stores and at the ports is all that there will be for a long while to come.

Stock up on EVERYTHING.

If you have kids or grandkids, buy clothes and shoes in the next 3 sizes for each season.

I have 4 grandkids and one more gonna pop in 7 months,been saving clothing and shoes and whatever else those babes out-grow from 08 on.

I buy off season for them where prices dont kill me,same for me and hubby.

But i would like to say that my husband is a truck driver that does pick-ups at the La docks every week,its getting slim and folks are fighting for loads outta that hell hole.

Post: #15

just watched a video almost a day ago that stated that funds are only 44% invested in stocks, if the market falls it sounds like the bulk of everyone's current wealth is already out of the market