LoP Guest Wrote: (06-17-2012 09:42 PM)
no doom for tomorrow
Time to refocus on Spain.
Deutsche Bank: "The Spanish Recapitalization Is Not Working" - A Market Shock Is Required
To summarize, Europe needs some kind of shock to get liquidity flowing again in order to fix Spain's botched bailout.
This weekend, everyone's attention will be on the Greek elections, however it is Spain that has now become the "fulcrum security" of Europe. As such, events in Greece are merely a catalyst that will set off a chain of events that will have an impact not only on Spain, but on all of Europe, and thus, the world.
As we pointed out last week after the Spanish bailout announcement, based on a preliminary analysis which had been compiled by Deutsche Bank's europhiles hours before the formal announcement, and one which just happened to be a carbon-copy of what was proposed as the 'final (and failed) Spanish solution', it appears that the events in Europe are if not orchestrated by the largest German bank, then certainly receiving part-time advice.
Which is why we were somewhat disturbed to read Gilles Moec's summary this morning, which points out the patently obvious: "Spain recapitalization: it’s not working
." Whether it is that Europe's brightest minds forgot about the threat of subordination (promptly reminded by Zero Hedge hours after the formal announcement), and that the scars of the Greek cramdown are still fresh in the private sector's mind, it does not matter: as DB says: "Unfortunately, the market reaction was clearly negative, with Spanish 10 year rate brushing past 7% for the first time since 1996. Two main elements probably explain the market reaction: first, the increase in public debt triggered by the recapitalization whose cost will stay on the sovereign’s balance sheet under the current rules); second the seniority attached to ESM loans, if this scheme is used as the final channel for the EU loan instead of the EFSF."
Yes, it is "unfortunate" that Spain's bailout plan was poorly planned, organized and executed. It is not unfortunate that some are still left who can do simple math and call out Europe's failed plans. Which brings us to the present, where we find that even Deutsche Bank has given up hope for interim solutions, having realized that the market will no longer accept transitory, feeble arrangements. Instead DB is now formally calling for a big bang resolution, one coming from the ECB. Here is the punchline: "ECB has room for manoeuvre, but needs political cover for a ‘big’ policy" or said otherwise, "A shock is required to get a liquidity response." In other words: Europe's only real hope for even a stop gap solution... is a wholesale market crash, not surprisingly the very same conclusion that Citi reached on May 19 when they warned that only Crossover (XO) at 1000 bps or wider could push Europe into acting...
Basically stated, anything less than a controlled market crash
, one that finally gets the ECB involved with Germany's permission of course, merely pushes the market higher on nothing but hope of an intervention that said market lift makes even more improbable, as now both Citi and DB admit, which can and will lead to an uncontrolled market collapse, one from which not even the ECB will be able to extricate Europe.
In this light, will Greece simply be the start of the much overdue "controlled demolition", that will bring the ECB out of hibernation, that is paradoxically instrumental in avoiding an uncontrolled demolition, where not even the ECB will have any powers left to prevent a collapse?
Here is how Deutsche Bank sets the strawman - on the recapitalization, the market is wrong, and our advice was, well, right:
The statement by the German finance minister on Monday that he found find an ESM solution “more efficient” may have rekindled among investors the fear that the “Greek blueprint” would be replicated for Spain, with the private sector left to bear the brunt of any restructuring.
We think that the risk to Spain’s public debt sustainability, even after a EUR100bn recapitalization effort, would remain manageable under what we consider realistic assumptions on growth and interest rates (see FE Europe 8 June). Spanish public debt would remain significantly lower than in Italy and not so far above that of France, for instance.