Latest information and statements of Russian politicians concerning issues of possibility of Israel's targeted attacks with U.S. support on Iran's nuclear facilities cannot not cause concern in the republics of the South Caucasus. This is especially true for Georgia, where everyone understands that Moscow has not abandoned its plans to fully seize and subjugate it. More, it has been militarising historical territories of Georgia - Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region that it itself has occupied.
14 borders departments (before they were called checkpoints) have been erected only in Abkhazia, which, as described by the Russian media, are practically small fortified districts with reinforced concrete walls and gun emplacements along the perimeter, where guards can keep defense in case of an armed invasion till arrival of main forces. Mainly, these facilities are situated in the Gali district of occupied Abkhazia and it is not clear with whom they intend to fight. If they fear an attack from across-the-Enguri territory of Georgia plans of the official Tbilisi do not include such actions. While no one is practically left in the occupied Tskhinvali region to expel. If before August 2008 local population amounted to about 60 thousand people today there are no more than 25 thousand, even if we include inhabitants of Akhalgori, which before the military intervention was under the jurisdiction of the official authorities of Georgia and which to this day is an area mainly populated by ethnic Georgians.
The last elections (two in Abkhazia and the last one in Tskhinvali) have clearly shown that the Kremlin is interested only in these territories – in development of its military infrastructure there and nothing more ... And in case of Abkhazia, also in inert materials and natural resources, exploitation of which they intend to carry out on in a swarm. And their plans do not include getting to know opinion of local population or their development. Georgia wanted to become a developed country and what happened? Two occupied regions - and this process was meant for stagnation of development not only Georgia, but of the process of conflict resolution.
However, the Kremlin project, despite all efforts, ahs still failed. The Georgian economy started to come out of the crisis and develop, investments are again coming into, and the government began to implement new grand projects. The Government of Georgia has repeatedly voiced its official course of settlement of conflicts and restoration of territorial integrity, - to become an economically attractive state, so that the breakaway regions feel comfortable to live in a the country where they will have all conditions for development and not live at someone else's expense - Ajara is a vivid example of this.
However, such development of the situation is not in the plans of the Kremlin. Russia needs vassals, servants, not partners. This kind of policy also shows that Russia has imperial way of thinking, which means only one thing - to seize land at the expense of others, and not develop them, but on the contrary, to enrich their personal (rulers of the empire) wealth by the enslavement and oppression of the occupied territories and local population.
Given this, Russia needs the entire Georgia, and not just its part. This desire is not due to just their aspirations to have luxury villas on the Black Sea, but it also fits in their geopolitical interests. Therefore, possible strikes on Iran Russia will certainly use to capture the entire Georgia and put its protégé on the "throne". It would not start the third world war, would it?
To make sure of such plans of Russia, let's see, what statements were made by Russian politicians, and what kind of materials was published in the Russian media.
On December 15th IA Regnum with reference to materials published in the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper issued a material "Russia is preparing Transcaucasia for a war in Iran" which describes different views of Russian experts on possible scenarios in case of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
At the beginning of the text it is stated that "the geopolitical situation around Syria and Iran urges Russia in an urgent manner to improve their military groups in the Caucasus, the Caspian area and in the regions of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Sources of the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper in the Russian Defence Ministry inform that the Kremlin received information about the upcoming US-backed Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. "
The exact date has not been yet specified, however, the publication writes that "... in the military sphere, it’s been a whole year since Russia started to prepare for minimization of losses due to possible military actions against Tehran. It is almost complete now. According to sources in the Defence Ministry in October-November 2011 the 102nd military base in Armenia was fully optimized. Families of servicemen were taken to Russia, and Russian garrison stationed near Yerevan was reduced, military units stationed there were transferred to the Gyumri area, close to the Turkish border ...". Afterwards Regnum quotes the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, which states that "it is the territory of Turkey from where attacks of the U.S. troops on targets in Iran are possible. For what in this regard the 102nd base will be used is not entirely clear. But we know that from December 1 Russian troops at military bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been brought into full combat readiness. And the Black Sea Fleet ships are drifting near the border with Georgia, which in this conflict may take the side of anti-Iranian forces”. Here I should add that around 16th of December, it was reported that Russia has started to sharply increase its offensive weapons in the occupied Georgian regions - Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region. According to recent reports, "in recent days 40 T-90 tanks have been transferred into the Gudauta military base in Abkhazia ... ...". And statements about a pretext for complete occupation of Georgia – helping its ally Armenia that borers Iran - are already heard from Russia.
Otherwise Russia will have to go against modern Nato-standard Turkish army of more than one million. Russia is unlikely to start a war, although it talks about strikes against the anti-Iran coalition. At that for the main column of tanks to reach Turkey they need to go through the territory of Georgia and if we take into consideration that the Russian troops will not be welcomed with open arms in Georgia it will take a long time.
Together with these facts Georgia finds a statement of Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev, who was a deputy commander of the Group of Russian Forces in Transcaucasia for a long time and was personally in charge of security units and formations of ammunition and weapons (including that of the 102nd military base in Armenia) very “speaking”. He believes that "... in the event of a full-scale war against Iran, Russia should find ways to secure military provision of its military facilities via Georgia." According to news agency Regnum, Netkachev believes that in this case it is necessary to break through the Georgian transport blockade. "We may have to break through the Georgian transport blockade and achieve provision of transport corridors leading to Armenia through military means,” - Regnum quotes the Russian general.
If we add to this a statement of Sergey Lavrov that he made at the last NATO summit, where he openly threatened with military actions against Georgia if the Alliance tried to receive it as its member. “Then I strictly warned our colleagues, not to push, willingly or unwillingly, the current regime in Georgia to repeat something like the adventure of August 2008 ... Because at the time it was soon after the Bucharest NATO summit where it was written categorically that Georgia would become a NATO member… - said the foreign minister. - I expressed hope that NATO members will show reason and not promote events in the region like that of August 2008 – the region which is strategic not only for the South Caucasus, but also for the Russian Federation. They are our closest allies and neighbours. I hope I have been heard. "
With his statement Lavrov has practically confirmed Medvedev's statement where the latter publicly acknowledged the true purpose of the August military intervention of Russia into Georgia. "If in 2008 we had wavered, we would have had a different geopolitical layout, and a number of countries that they have tried to artificially drag into the alliance most likely would have been there. "
If we sum up all this, we can only think one thing - under the guise of all this talk about Iran Russia is preparing its invasion of Georgia.
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