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Solar Watch: 12 X Flares and 139 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
Elizabeth
lop guest
User ID: 50947
03-06-2012 10:08 AM

 



Post: #1066
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 76 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
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Dang! I didnt even notice this thread open on the front page.

I just posted a thread asking a solar question. Is this many sunspots at one time normal? I cant ever remember seeing a pic with that many at once?

[Image: 777B_4F55C4EF.jpg]
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OTOC
A God, Risen from the Grave.
User ID: 82184
03-06-2012 12:36 PM

Posts: 3,705



Post: #1067
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 76 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
OpenEnded  Wrote: (03-06-2012 07:26 AM)
glad to see you're hanging with us old friend.. seems like the old suntard guard will never go away:)

Yep, still here I am indeed, still watching.

There was a light in the dark world.
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OpenEnded
riding the wake..
User ID: 60397
03-06-2012 06:09 PM

Posts: 1,092



Post: #1068
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 76 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
808hawk  Wrote: (03-06-2012 09:57 AM)
thank you. So are sunspots multiple poles, much like what's predicted as a prelude to a magnetic pole reversal on earth. Or are they just solar weather as in edi's and currents similar to cloud formations high and low pressures and densities.

i would say both are correct to some degree.. janitor?

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
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OpenEnded
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User ID: 60397
03-06-2012 06:17 PM

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Post: #1069
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 76 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
Flountastic  Wrote: (03-06-2012 10:08 AM)
Dang! I didnt even notice this thread open on the front page.

I just posted a thread asking a solar question. Is this many sunspots at one time normal? I cant ever remember seeing a pic with that many at once?

it's lit up pretty well right now, but i think last march was even moreso just by looking. a good way to see the overall intensity is by watching the total sunspot number..

sc24 record.. SUNSPOT # 208 (11/09/11)
feb sunspot average.. Sunspots 050.1
now.. Sunspot number: 105

http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2012 06:18 PM by OpenEnded.) Quote this message in a reply
OpenEnded
riding the wake..
User ID: 60397
03-06-2012 06:20 PM

Posts: 1,092



Post: #1070
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 76 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
and 1 more m last night..

sh..

AR11429 produced an M2.1 Solar Flare at 12:41 UTC this morning.

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
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OpenEnded
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User ID: 60397
03-06-2012 06:39 PM

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Post: #1071
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 77 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
29 now connecting to 30 and even reaching out to the sisters in the South, this compilation is due for a major blast..

[Image: F921_4F563D70.jpg]

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
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OTOC
A God, Risen from the Grave.
User ID: 82184
03-06-2012 09:12 PM

Posts: 3,705



Post: #1072
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 77 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
OpenEnded  Wrote: (03-06-2012 06:09 PM)
808hawk  Wrote: (03-06-2012 09:57 AM)
thank you. So are sunspots multiple poles, much like what's predicted as a prelude to a magnetic pole reversal on earth. Or are they just solar weather as in edi's and currents similar to cloud formations high and low pressures and densities.

i would say both are correct to some degree.. janitor?

Not really, sunspots aren't magnetic poles, if you look at the poles of the sun, north and south and it's magnetic north and south poles you'll see that they aren't covered in sunspots because the magnetics are coming up from the center of the sun and the rotation of the sun doesn't twist these much up there.

Sunspots are the result of the uneven solar rotation (faster around the equator) twisting and distorting magnetic field lines, this creates magnetic eddys, think of the plasma and magnetics associated with it as a fluid. It's why you generally see sunspots around the same latitude. The further from the (about 30 degree latitude) they are the generally more short lived they are.

Anyway, sunspots aren't magnetic poles and it's much more like the latter part of hawks post.

There was a light in the dark world.
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2012 01:11 AM by OTOC.) Quote this message in a reply
17:17
reborn on 12/21/2010
User ID: 82323
03-06-2012 09:31 PM

Posts: 4,770



Post: #1073
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 77 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
Last year before the Japan earthquake we had a similar active sun on March 5th-7th didn't we?
Whatever, the sun is a beauty. Just in time to stop Skynet. Cheer

DON'T PANIC!
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OpenEnded
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User ID: 60397
03-06-2012 11:28 PM

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Post: #1074
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 77 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
popcorn still popping, another small m passed..

Popcorn

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2012 11:29 PM by OpenEnded.) Quote this message in a reply
OpenEnded
riding the wake..
User ID: 60397
03-06-2012 11:37 PM

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Post: #1075
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 78 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
17:17  Wrote: (03-06-2012 09:31 PM)
Last year before the Japan earthquake we had a similar active sun on March 5th-7th didn't we?
Whatever, the sun is a beauty. Just in time to stop Skynet. Cheer

yes, the similarities are creepy.. but it was much worse last year, so far at least..

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
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tethys
Registered User
User ID: 59284
03-07-2012 12:21 AM

Posts: 6,807



Post: #1076
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 78 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/...e-science/

Sunspots Can Now Be Predicted Days in Advance
New technique may improve solar-storm forecasts, experts say.

"We can measure the time taken by acoustic waves to propagate from one location to another, and it turns out the total travel time for this particular distance [inside the sun] is about an hour," Ilonidis said.

"If, however, the waves cross a sunspot region along their path, they propagate a little faster inside the sunspot region, so the total travel time becomes a little shorter, by about 12 to 16 seconds."
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808hawk
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User ID: 18607
03-07-2012 12:43 AM

Posts: 2,565



Post: #1077
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 78 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
The Janitor  Wrote: (03-06-2012 09:12 PM)
OpenEnded  Wrote: (03-06-2012 06:09 PM)
808hawk  Wrote: (03-06-2012 09:57 AM)
thank you. So are sunspots multiple poles, much like what's predicted as a prelude to a magnetic pole reversal on earth. Or are they just solar weather as in edi's and currents similar to cloud formations high and low pressures and densities.

i would say both are correct to some degree.. janitor?

Not really, sunspots aren't magnetic poles, if you look at the poles of the sun, north and south and it's magnetic north and south poles you'll see that they aren't covered in sunspots because the magnetics are coming up from the center of the sun and the rotation of the sun doesn't twist these much up there.

Sunspots are the result of the uneven solar rotation (faster around the equator) twisting and distorting magnetic field lines, this creates magnetic eddys, think of the plasma and magnetics associated with it as a fluid. It's why you generally see sunspots around the same latitude. The further from the (about 30 degree latitude) they are the generally less short lived they are.

Anyway, sunspots aren't magnetic poles and it's much more like the latter part of hawks post.
Thanks.
Heartflowers

"Lives of great men all remind us, we can make our lives sublime, and, departing, leave behind us, footprints on the sands of time." Longfellow
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OpenEnded
riding the wake..
User ID: 60397
03-07-2012 01:21 AM

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Post: #1078
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 78 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
nasa/noaa bumped up m flare possibility to 80%..

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.
Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
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OpenEnded
riding the wake..
User ID: 60397
03-07-2012 01:43 AM

Posts: 1,092



Post: #1079
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 79 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
x ray flux currently charting roughly horizontal in the high c range:/

going vert now deep into m territory..

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2012 02:08 AM by OpenEnded.) Quote this message in a reply
OpenEnded
riding the wake..
User ID: 60397
03-07-2012 02:12 AM

Posts: 1,092



Post: #1080
RE: Solar Watch: 8 X Flares and 79 M Flares so far, starting 7/27/11
X Flare now!!

wow, took a little sideways then up some more..

There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road..
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2012 02:17 AM by OpenEnded.) Quote this message in a reply












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