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Tracking another "Potential Storm" for 3/30/14 - 3/31/14
THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-13-2014 04:25 AM

Posts: 649



Post: #1
banana Tracking another "Potential Storm" for 3/30/14 - 3/31/14
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Yes!!!

I have seen enough consistency in the Model runs which have been indicating another potential storm for parts of the Northeast and most of New England.

However... This storm appears to be nothing like the Massive Hurricane Bomb of a storm that is about to slam the Canadian Maritimes.

Here is the Canadian Maritimes Radar of the storm Below as it is now
http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XGO

and here is where your storm is as of 5:54 AM Eastern Time
[Image: 2ypls0n.jpg]


*********************************************************
Now to the next storm threat for 3/30/14 - 3/31/14.


It is a tough one if you are looking for snow.

GFS Model being consistent showing a weak area of low pressure tracking up the coast. That I am not worried about, there will be impacts from that storm and this is for places like Coastal and Interior Northeast and New England.

What I am worried about is who will get the rain and who will get the snow.

The NAO is slightly.. Just barely negative approaching that Time-Zone and the reason it is going to be Negative is because of the monster storm which is about to hit the Canadian Maritimes.

Here is your NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) below. The Forecast of it is still wanting to keep it Negative atleast to the end of March, then the rest of it is just confused as to what will happen. If you are looking for a snow chance you do not want the NAO to start trending back positive because that will keep storms out to sea again and the chances of snow would pretty much be over
[Image: hts6e0.gif]



In the next 7 images below I want you all to see how a storm keeps appearing on the GFS run for the end of March.

[Image: 2dkl7if.png]
[Image: 20pc02t.png]
[Image: 29yjukj.png]
[Image: epoowp.png]
[Image: opw60.png]
[Image: 290quiu.png]


And last is the NAM model
[Image: 25gq6ic.png]


So what you are now seeing is pretty much what I do.

Does this storm has consistency ? [YES]

but the exact location of the rain and snow is undetermined at this time.

Knowing from experience I pay no attention to the NAM Model trying to predict this storm that far out because the NAM Model is not good predicting storms this far out.

So the threat is for the Northeast and New England.

and in all the runs it is not showing anything like a blizzard or strong storm, it is just showing some moderate to heavy wet snow on that date

But here are my thoughts about this next potential storm threat.

Depending on how far south that Low develops will determine who gets what.

The storm is going to try and come up the coast or hug the coast instead of going out to sea.

But the 3 critical questions are

1) How far south does the Low pressure System develops
2) How strong does the Low pressure system becomes
3) How much cold air will meet up with the storm

due to the fact that the storm comes up the coast, it should be stronger then 1005mb on the last GFS run and this is why I think so

1) The Warm Sea surface temperatures along the entire east coast.
[Image: xojsht.png]


That played a role in making the storm for the Canadian Maritimes so strong because it had all that warm water to feed off of, Now I don't know how warm or cool the sea surface temp is going to be coming up on the dates of 3/30/14 - 3/31/14 but what I do know is if the storm feeds off of that energy, there is definitely going to be a storm on the coast stronger then 1005mb.

That is all for today :-)

and severe weather threat coming for parts of the U.S
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

March 27 - March 28 2014

(This post was last modified: 03-26-2014 01:01 PM by THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-.) Quote this message in a reply
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 186041
01-13-2014 04:34 AM

 



Post: #2
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
So more Doom for WV?
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 205687
01-13-2014 04:36 AM

 



Post: #3
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
I've missed you Kevin.

-A fan
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THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-13-2014 05:01 AM

Posts: 649



Post: #4
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
LoP Guest  Wrote: (01-13-2014 04:36 AM)
I've missed you Kevin.

-A fan

I'm not Kevin lol

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
Quote this message in a reply
THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-13-2014 05:04 AM

Posts: 649



Post: #5
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
LoP Guest  Wrote: (01-13-2014 04:34 AM)
So more Doom for WV?

Sure looks like it 5

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
Quote this message in a reply
THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
Registered User
User ID: 209462
01-14-2014 05:10 AM

Posts: 649



Post: #6
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
Hello everyone, welcome to the 1/13/2014 update
Hugs

Got some big news, I know it says above on the title of this thread that the date was changed to the 23rd - 29th and that remains, However, The storm for the 22nd of January is starting to come back to life and now it is even twice as bad for the east-coast.

If the storm for the 22nd of January stays, That means there is going to be two snowstorms impacting the east-coast.

My confidence level for the storm coming on the 22nd of January is starting to grow now and now I don't think I can rule out a snowstorm on that date.

Here is the GFS run of this storm, it is amazing to see that it has re-appeared again

[Image: 34nkw0m.jpg]



Now here is the second storm, its still there and that means the threat is still there, stay safe everyone
[Image: 205xd3o.jpg]


Njihtnht

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
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Fuzzy Bear
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User ID: 188243
01-14-2014 05:18 AM

Posts: 7,064



Post: #7
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
Thanks OP for keeping a weathery eye...

Resistance is futile
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THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-14-2014 05:24 AM

Posts: 649



Post: #8
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
Alien Welcome  Wrote: (01-14-2014 05:18 AM)
Thanks OP for keeping a weathery eye...

No problem : )

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
Quote this message in a reply
THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-15-2014 05:27 AM

Posts: 649



Post: #9
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
Welcome to the 1/14/2014 update of this thread

Got some news for the people on the eastoast and in the Midwest, The arctic cold is coming

But first things first, the storm for the 15th is not going to happen because the low pressure system is going to form too far out to sea to the eastern states.
[Image: 2uf50fp.jpg]

The storm for the 22nd of January is still there, but barely, the GFS has weakened the storm significantly which is making it look like snow flurries and nothing much, This is the same storm I said I cancelled and this is why, Yesterday the GFS blew this storm up to a snow event for the east coast. Today it has nothing but what I am looking for is consistency and I still can’t rule out snow for the east coast on the 22nd.
[Image: o0xwlw.jpg]


This is the storm for the 26 – 27th and once again the GFS is consistently showing this storm, ever since last weekend, hitting the east coast on these dates, it has weakened the storm for now, but I am certain that will change soon, this storm coming for the 26th – 27th could very well be a monster… 2 FEET widespread from New Jersey to Boston is just an estimate
[Image: fu9ter.jpg]

Stay prepared

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
Quote this message in a reply
THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-16-2014 12:25 PM

Posts: 649



Post: #10
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
Welcome to the update for 1/16/2014

This is not looking good, This is why I should call off the storm for the 22nd, I first saw this storm on the GFS run, I went with it, then it disappeared and I knew my mistake because it just wasn't consistently appearing on the GFS run like the storm for the 26th - 27th, and this is exactly why I did not want to go with this storm, I'm surprised it's still here and another thing is I am surprised it re-appeared to the point where I thought it was going to hit, Now from looking at this, it just don't seem possible that this is going to be a snow event for the east-coast, the storm has now a much more "OUT TO SEA" track then hugging the coast. and this is not the storm I concerned about so it is okay
[Image: 28snaeu.jpg]


The storm for the 27th is still here, GFS is moving the low into multiple places, like it cant make up its mind if the storm is going to be more inland or more coastal, My thinking is that it will be more coastal and there will be a widespread swath of 12+ inches of snow from New Jersey points north. I am still going to keep my faith that this is going to be the biggest snowstorm / blizzard for the northeast for the entire 2013-14 winter. there are some things I like and other things I don't like, 1 is the low pressure system being so far inland, that would give coastal cities a rain/snow mix, another thing is that barometric low pressure, it needs to be much stronger then a 997, somewhere like a 976 or 972 would be a set in stone monster blizzard for much of the mid-Atlantic, northeast and New England
[Image: 10n5fes.jpg]


The last is this storm, This is way...way....way far out lol, as far as I am concerned this is a ghost storm.... for now
[Image: mwb4sm.jpg]

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
Quote this message in a reply
THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-16-2014 10:27 PM

Posts: 649



Post: #11
Date changed, Eastcoast storm watch [23rd - 29th]
This is another update for today 1/16/2014

lol This is why I just cannot give up in the storm for the 22nd, This is actually a tweet from Joe Bastardi. 132 hours out, he said this model is showing a blizzard for the eastcoast, this is the same storm on the GFS for the 22nd that keeps appearing and dis-appearing, and I can also see the negative tilt in that trough, that right there makes a massive storm system, I am really going to have to keep an eye on this storm
[Image: 5o5tp4.jpg]


There is that storm again, for the 21 - 22nd, this could either be (1) a light snow or no snow event or (2) a massive snowstorm/ Blizzard event for the northeast. Just by looking at this the trough is tilting negative and that is a sign that the conditions and ingredients could very well be there to make for one powerful first snowstorm
[Image: xeg3tc.jpg]


The storm of the 27th is still here on the GFS as predicted, I don't think it will ever dis-appear off the GFS run not once!
[Image: 2re6stt.jpg]


Now... looking at this, this is the same storm, the date has changed slightly a bit but my god, this paints a scene of a blizzard like no other, Yes the GFS is trying to adjust this storm and I don't think it will snow as far south as Florida but I do have faith that the northeast and New England would deal with one of the most biggest and strongest snowstorms they have seen in quite some time, probably as strong as the blizzard of December 26th 2010
[Image: wbxu2e.jpg]


This is the 27th storm, like I said the date is not set in stone, but once again the GFS has dropped the pressure of this storm back to 993, I have a feeling that is too weak for this storm as the pressure could very well be at 975 or 972mb, I'm really keeping my eyes on this coming storm
[Image: 2h54ms5.jpg]

This is just something to watch.. for now
[Image: 286sv1l.jpg]

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
Quote this message in a reply
THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-16-2014 10:41 PM

Posts: 649



Post: #12
Eastcoast storm watch [21st- 29th]
One more thing to add to this thread, I have been following the experts and all and it really does look like winter is about to hit the east-coast pretty hard. I mean from Boston down to Atlanta Georgia and anywhere in between will be dealing with some form of wintry precipitation.

There are a few very big storms showing up on the GFS, some are looking so powerful I could only compare them back to some of the old historical blizzards from the past, like the superstorm of 93, The blizzard of 78, I am starting to think that one of these storms coming for the eastcoast from the 21st to February might rival one of those historical blizzards, I don't want to go 100% with that statement but I mean it is starting to look like that, I don't think the mid atlantic is going to escape this and I think NYC might get up to 30 to 50 inches.... Yes I said 50 inches of snow when It is all said and done

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 205687
01-16-2014 10:45 PM

 



Post: #13
Eastcoast USA BLIZZARD/ Storm watch period [21st- 29th]
National Weather Service discussion disagrees with your analysis.

TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE TUE INTO THE EARLY WED TIME FRAME.
THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR A COASTAL STORM...BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AT THIS POINT SHOW A MISS OR GLANCING BLOW.
THE POSSIBLE EVENT IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT...SO ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY COME CLOSER TO US AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT...ODDS FAVOR A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS
...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT. ITS ALSO VERY IMPORTANT NOT TO JUMP ON 1 OR 2 OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOK MORE AT THE ENSEMBLES AND CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS AT THIS POINT.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 205687
01-16-2014 10:47 PM

 



Post: #14
Eastcoast USA BLIZZARD/ Storm watch period [21st- 29th]
The only time a winter storm even begins to approach the extreme is when a high pressure ridge sits up over the northern atlantic and slows down the coastal low or even turns it retrograde and sends the storm back to the west (a la the "Perfect Storm").

Unless you can show a blocking high pressure over Nova Scotia, this will just be another snowfall. If it's 10 or 20 or even 30 inches, its just not a big deal in New England dude.
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THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-
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User ID: 209462
01-16-2014 11:48 PM

Posts: 649



Post: #15
Eastcoast USA BLIZZARD/ Storm watch period [21st- 29th]
LoP Guest  Wrote: (01-16-2014 10:47 PM)
The only time a winter storm even begins to approach the extreme is when a high pressure ridge sits up over the northern atlantic and slows down the coastal low or even turns it retrograde and sends the storm back to the west (a la the "Perfect Storm").

Unless you can show a blocking high pressure over Nova Scotia, this will just be another snowfall. If it's 10 or 20 or even 30 inches, its just not a big deal in New England dude.

NOT A BIG DEAL???? DO YOU EVEN KNOW WHY WE ARE GETTING ALL OF THIS ARCTIC COLD, BIG WARMS UP THEN COOL DOWNS LIKE THE ONE THAT IS COMING NEXT WEEK? DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT IS GOING ON AND WHAT IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 20 TO 30 YEARS AND WHY YOU'RE BEHIND SHOUD BE EITHER PREPARING OR MOVING SOUTH?

Before I jump the gun, let me explain to you how New England along with us here in southern New York is in trouble this winter and for many more winters to come, I know what you are talking about, a blocking pattern to send the storm back to the west like with sandy, That blocking pattern is called the "NAO" the "North Atlantic Oscillation" and when that goes negative that forces the storms back west, here is the thing though little buddy, The NAO previously when we had got hit by those other storms in late last year of December, it was neutral to positive, yet we still had storms coming up the eastern seaboard as if the NAO was in its negative phase. going to show there was more then just an NAO driving it.

There are many other factors such as the "Arctic Oscillation", The "pacific north American pattern" The "MJO", ridges and troughs etc...

You can't tell me that is just winter dude, it is all connected to one big EFFIN source lol excuse my language, These winters are going to get colder and snowier and this winter is just one that is going to prove that statement, not only for the New England but for upper mid-west, the south and northeast, and for much of the world really....


And Go ahead I dare you to call me crazy, You live in New England I reckon from your response and you're probably saying what you are saying because you've seen worse and I don't blame you, you've seen worse winters with bigger storms like the blizzard of 78, we here in NYC seen the blizzard of 1888, we both know how much it can snow and know when the limit is being pushed to extreme and in these next 20 to 30 to 40 to 50 to 60 years some of these blizzards are going to be small fry, compared to what it is coming.

I sit here on my computer all day long, looking at this stuff, seeing the post some of the real
"Long range meteorologist" have been saying, not the actors, the real ones.

WHEN I SEE STUFF LIKE THIS??
[Image: 2pqp1eq.png]

That's over 30 inches of snow dude... 30 inches... and that is just going into February, and February is historically known as a winter month, meaning we can very well see more snowstorms after that and down the line.

Take a look at this GFS run from today for snowfall
[Image: b9fv9g.png]

How much of America is covered in snow ??? HOW MUCH, THATS 2/3rds OF THE NATION DUDE!!

THIS IS JUST THE BEGININING, THE PRECURSOR OF WHAT IS YET TO COME, I SO SWEAR TO GOD IF YOU AND I BOTH HAVE ANOTHER 20 YEARS ON OUR LIFE TIME THERE IS GOING TO BE A TIME VERY SOON WHERE WE WILL BOTH SEE BLIZZARDS THAT WILL BE STRONGER AND BIGGER THEN THE BLIZZARDS WE'VE THOUGHT WE'VE EVER SEEN, WINTERS THAT WILL BE COLDER THAN THE WINTERS WE THOUGHT WAS THE COLDEST WE'VE EVER EXPERIENCED

Everyone is going to experience this and it is going to freaking amazing for me to see 7 to 8 foot snow drifts at my front door more often, heck I love it lol There is a blizzard coming that will rival the blizzard of 78, I am 100% certain of that,

You better be glad that there is no blocking, atleast in your opinion, is going on right now over nova scotia and Greenland because if there was, you've already would of saw a blizzard stronger then the one of 78, but I guarantee you, I give it 5 years, 5 years the least

NOW HERE... YOU PISSED ME OFF BUT TAKE A FLOWER AND A HUG...MOMMY IS DONE SPANKING THE CHILD HeartflowersHugs

-I-AM-THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM- but I am not all doom and gloom ... I'm much more.. Half a psychic and a deep thinker on many things to understand the reason behind everything. because there is... a reason...behind everything.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2014 12:00 AM by THE-SWORN-GOD-OF-DOOM-.) Quote this message in a reply












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