News

**OTOC**

New GFS charts are coming in right now.

In comparison to the 12z run the 18z is hinting at more precipitation but less storm risk for much of the UK for the coming weekend.

This is likely to change in the following runs.

And I'll try and keep you updated as to what the charts are showing.

Also the ECM, MO and GFS suite along with a few others are showing the same pattern, so currently there is a very good chance of this coming off, the details are very foggy right now and as with storms we won't really know where they will hit (if they will) precisely, but they could appear in a lot of places giving extremely high amounts of precipitation locally.

**Joshua Flynn**

Having seen the sky for Essex, I can say we won't see rain for another 2 days at least (assuming no aerial tampering). Atmospheric wind speeds are/were low based on visuals, and clouds were very, very minimal. Which infers it won't change at least for another 2 days if no tampering is involved.

I can't comment on other areas of the UK though.

**Dough Dude** · **Dough Dude** Wake~N~Bake User ID: 14572 05-04-2011 12:40 AM **Posts: 6,198**

Snowing in Poland...

**Joshua Flynn**

Dough Dude Wrote:

Snowing in Poland...

I thought poland was naturally cold?

**gladio** lop guest User ID: 30715 05-04-2011 12:43 AM

Joshua Flynn Wrote:

We had a shill on sometime earlier trying to make out the person was lying when they said that the hot weather in the UK was unusual. LOP guest account and really, really tried to kept hammering the thread.

I figured, of course, the hot weather is unusual and they are scared witless about it.

But not at all surprising. Because if it got out the weather was extreme and unusual, maybe people might click on that there is probably a food shortage inbound.

That might have been me Joshua and I don't consider our current weather abnormal -- after all, what is normal. There isn't anything normal, just different patterns of weather.

You say it's been really hot recently. Not here in east central Scotland, it hasn't. It's been dead sunny, the past two weeks. But it's also been cold.

As for an inbound food shortage, that's got nothing to do with our weather and more to do with what's happened overseas in the past year, coupled with commodities dealers scamming the world economy for everything they can get.

**LoP Guest** lop guest User ID: 4398 05-04-2011 12:53 AM

Record high temp in California and massive flooding in Columbia.
Source RSOE.
No "We have had more than a year of daily rains," is not normal!
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php
Hiding3

**Joshua Flynn**

gladio Wrote:

That might have been me Joshua and I don't consider our current weather abnormal -- after all, what is normal. There isn't anything normal, just different patterns of weather.

Different patterns are abnormal. We should be getting rains in this season. But we've had sun. To the extent that rainfall is low.

gladio Wrote:

You say it's been really hot recently. Not here in east central Scotland, it hasn't. It's been dead sunny, the past two weeks. But it's also been cold.

Scotland is a mountainous region located closer to the cold fronts coming in from Iceland. The statement isn't exactly surprising (although 'dead sunny' is - no fog?). However, you can still have a water shortage by insufficient rain.

gladio Wrote:

As for an inbound food shortage, that's got nothing to do with our weather

Actually, it has everything to do with it. Weather has been, in actual fact, the sole cause of the destruction of crops. I got a thread with 50+ links that will back that up too.

You've only got speculation.
gladio Wrote:

more to do with what's happened overseas in the past year

Ambiguous statement. Please clarify as this could refer easily to the extreme weather - which would actually confirm what I am saying.

gladio Wrote:

coupled with commodities dealers scamming the world economy for everything they can get.

The scamming is an amplifier, but you're confusing it with the cause. The cause is the thing that triggers it to occur - this case, the weather is the cause. An amplifier doesn't trigger it per se - but makes it worse, either at the time or later on.

For example, an increase in oil will make food more expensive, BUT, there will not be less of it available. The word food shortage shows the real problem - there's no food to begin with.

And how is the food destroyed? Flooding (Australia, Sri Lanka, Brazil, US etc), Cyclone/Tornado damage (Australia, US, etc), Forest fires [heat wave/drought] (Russia, South America, Texas, etc), extreme cold/snowstorms (US, Mexico, etc).

The issue won't be oil prices. The issue will be people won't be able to grow the food in their grounds (which will either be water-logged, frozen, parch dry, or burnt).

Except, now we are transitioning from a colder climate to a warmer one, it will no longer be a result of frost or snow damage. And likely to be the inverse - drought and heat damage.

If you still disagree, read my full explanation and assessment as to how I reached the conclusion here:
http://lunaticoutpost.com/Topic-Warning-...d-Shortage

You will find it loaded with links, to-the-point commentary and explanations of how I reached my conclusion of a food shortage (this was way before any oil tampering or economical damage).

**gladio** lop guest User ID: 30715 05-04-2011 01:30 AM

Joshua Flynn Wrote:

gladio Wrote:
That might have been me Joshua and I don't consider our current weather abnormal -- after all, what is normal. There isn't anything normal, just different patterns of weather.

Different patterns are abnormal. We should be getting rains in this season. But we've had sun. To the extent that rainfall is low.

Not necessarily.

April showers, perhaps; but I can remember dry warm Aprils, followed by wet Mays, when growing up.

3 years ago our April was dry, sunny and warm, followed by a cold full May.

Then we started to get lotsa rain.

Joshua Flynn Wrote:

gladio Wrote:
You say it's been really hot recently. Not here in east central Scotland, it hasn't. It's been dead sunny, the past two weeks. But it's also been cold.

Scotland is a mountainous region located closer to the cold fronts coming in from Iceland. The statement isn't exactly surprising (although 'dead sunny' is - no fog?). However, you can still have a water shortage by insufficient rain.

Northern Scotland is mountainous. Central and southern Scotland isn't.

We don't have a water shortage right now because we have so much rain most of the rest of the time.

And as far for fog, when southern England had that great weekend, here in eastern Scotland we had cold, thick fog.

Don't go mistaking England's weather for the whole of the UK.

I fully expect England and to some extent Wales will suffer drought this summer, but not up here.

We've got rain predicted for the weekend.

**Joshua Flynn** · (This post was last modified: 05-04-2011 01:51 AM by Joshua Flynn.)

gladio Wrote:

Northern Scotland is mountainous. Central and southern Scotland isn't.

You know exactly what I mean when I said Scotland was mountainous. You're just picking hairs - I never said 'central' or 'southern'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountains_a...f_Scotland

"Scotland is the most mountainous country in the United Kingdom."

gladio Wrote:

We don't have a water shortage right now because we have so much rain most of the rest of the time.

That's funny. Neither does England or Wales.

That's the problem with short-sightedness. It always considers 'now' and never the future. I was told there was plenty of food in the US and that nothing could go wrong and how it was the breadbasket of the world.

Well, that all changed, didn't it?

gladio Wrote:

And as far for fog, when southern England had that great weekend, here in eastern Scotland we had cold, thick fog.

And when was the 'great weekend'? You had said it was dead sunny for 2 weeks - you can't see the sun clearly through fog (not what you'd call sunny anyway - no splitting hairs). Either you had sun for 2 weeks or you had some sun with some fog. But not both.

gladio Wrote:

Don't go mistaking England's weather for the whole of the UK.

If you're talking short-term, I distinguished the 2-day prediction as being for Essex only. If you're talking long-term, you won't get it until later when it warms up more - but the drought issue still applies (not to every country) because of it's impact on food.

How many crops do you grow in scotland? If your answer is 'not a lot' then you're already in a bad position.

gladio Wrote:

I fully expect England and to some extent Wales will suffer drought this summer, but not up here.

Assuming present extrapolation, England definitely will ([if there is] no improvement [to the weather]), Wales will be close behind, and Scotland will suffer a mini-drought (not a proper one but shortage enough to turn heads).

Although this is pushing it as my skills aren't in weather prediction.

gladio Wrote:

We've got rain predicted for the weekend.

We'll see if it holds. Tomorrow, look out at your sky, tell me what it's like and how fast the clouds are moving. I'll see what if I predict anything differently.

**tethys**

Another record broken -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weathe...-1659.html

It might come as a surprise to those who tried to hold a barbecue in the rain yesterday, but this spring has been the warmest since records began more than 350 years ago.

**Intentionally Blank** lop guest User ID: 34984 05-31-2011 05:49 PM

No kidding, Tethys. Our poor little seedlings have turned white with the cold and even though we're watering they're still getting too dry. So cold I can't get some of our seeds to even germinate - when normally we've had great success. I like it better when we had that heatwave earlier!

Heartflowers

**tethys**

Intentionally Blank Wrote:

No kidding, Tethys. Our poor little seedlings have turned white with the cold and even though we're watering they're still getting too dry. So cold I can't get some of our seeds to even germinate - when normally we've had great success. I like it better when we had that heatwave earlier!

Getting warmer according to the forecast may need more watering not a lot of rain. Heartflowers

**Joshua Flynn**

tethys Wrote:

Another record broken -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weathe...-1659.html

It might come as a surprise to those who tried to hold a barbecue in the rain yesterday, but this spring has been the warmest since records began more than 350 years ago.

Yep. And we'd be looking at drought soon enough if the trend continues.

I wondered what disaster the UK would face.

**tethys**

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthne...utumn.html

Drought declared as shortages set to last until autumn

The Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) said that Britain was split in two over the last four weeks with the wettest May on record in Scotland and the driest May for 100 years in England.

**Intentionally Blank** lop guest User ID: 36227 06-10-2011 02:03 PM

tethys Wrote:

The Janitor. Wrote:
Likely to have some nice rain at the weekend.. Possible extreme storms, Supercells and possibly tornado if the outlook stays the same.

Need to wait a few more days to really get risk factors but at current we are looking at the weekend for the winds to turn southerly and bring rain in from the bay of biscay.

The garden needs it - you need a pneumatic drill to dig the garden at the moment!

Pneumatic drill - ? We're considering nukes!

chuckle