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Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-02-2019 12:36 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #16
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
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Quote:Sense in EU of confusion, concern plus a deep distrust in Johnson government. Diplomat from country traditionally close to EU that has a lot to lose from no deal #Brexit tells me:
"We can see Boris Johnson is playing a game but we don’t understand the rules or the strategy.”

EU focus now is dramatically different from beginning of Brexit negotiations when Brussels' plan was undoubtedly to get UK to agree to the most advantageous deal possible seen from the EU perspective BUT With no deal now considered the most likely scenario by EU, the bloc is in self-preservation, damage-limitation mode, with EU leaders wondering how they ..and the EU as a whole .. can emerge from the Brexit drama as unscathed as possible

Political leaders - like Merkel or Rutte in NL - very keen indeed that a deal be found. Aware of economic impact of no deal for them at home plus they envisage likely acrimonious EU-UK relationship emerging post no deal that they fear will serve Putin and Trump most of all BUT EU leader keen-ness to find a #Brexit compromise should not be confused as willingness to do whatever it takes to get a deal with UK. EU single market concerns are paramount when looking at alternatives to backstop. Merkel certainly not looking for deal "at any price"

PM's EU envoy David Frost is back in Brussels this Weds, possibly Friday too but his visits regarded by EU so far as "optics" aimed at domestic UK audience, rather than negotiating substance. Johnson gov has yet to put realistic alternative to backstop on the table .

Officially EU position is 1) it awaits UK proposals because 2) the backstop as stands is the only credible solution that fits the UK red lines as set out by Theresa May and recognises unique situation on island of Ireland BUT privately some key EU players thinking... "Did we miss something?" "Were we too focused on encouraging UK to a closer position with us post #Brexit ?"

"Is there a workable alternative to backstop that protects all-Ireland economy and EU single market enough?" One possibility being considered (though viewed by many in EU as leaving too many exploitable holes) is sector-by-sector deal for Irish border conundrum: eg one for vetinary checks, for steel goods etc. Similar to what EU has (and swore never to replicate) with Switzerland.

Most simple solution for EU and the PM (in EU's opinion!):A return to original Northern Ireland-only backstop (could be dressed-up as st else if Johnson wants to make it more palatable in UK). Maybe works if Johnson holds election before UK leaves EU + no longer relies on DUP

EU musings that pm could hold a NI referendum on Northern-Ireland only backstop in knowledge that NI polls suggest majority there very much in favour

BUT bottom line is that EU will only make compromises on backstop - if painful ones for EU - if bloc is convinced that a majority in parliament is guaranteed to approve the revised deal. Right now EU leaders see Johnson doesn't have the numbers, Johnson's weakness in parliament impedes deal-making far more than a "Rebel Alliance" threatening to stop no deal on 31 October or EU being or not being fully-convinced of Johnson threat of no deal (NB they ARE convinced and that has made them more willing to engage)

I notice that - as so many other times in #Brexit process - both sides misunderstand one another: Johnson&co think no deal threat will make EU cave (but Brussels won't unless a compromise is in their wider interest) and some in EU still think if they refuse to engage..

Then Johnson will buckle just before 31 October, when faced with political, economic cost of no deal. In fact: unlikely he would. Whatever happens, bets are on that EU leaders scheduled summit mid Oct will NOT be final word. Emergency EU summit (or 2) expected later October

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/11684...71457.html
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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-02-2019 12:41 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #17
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution






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LoP Guest
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User ID: 513515
09-02-2019 12:58 PM

 



Post: #18
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
I think the EU and UK understand each others situation perfectly well and have been working towards presenting a deal that was not palatable to either side, leaving the only option to revoke and stay in the EU...

A simple and effective plan, except the hope was reliant of the leave sentiment dissipating and evaporating as Brexit weariness took effect.

That might have been true if it was all orchestrated, except it hasn't.. and has set the tone for the people vs parliament situation that has evolved.

any election now under FPTP will return an overwhelming leave majority.. and this is a situation the UKs Parliament and the UKs constitution is not designed to deal with.. and therein lies the core issue now shaping the discussions between the UK and EU.

I can not help but feel that Johnson has Prorogued parliament (within the rules) to force a VONC that would force an people vs parliament election since under fixed term rules he can not call one himself, if there was a move happening it is that one...
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 513515
09-02-2019 01:53 PM

 



Post: #19
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
LoP Guest  Wrote: (09-02-2019 12:58 PM)
I think the EU and UK understand each others situation perfectly well and have been working towards presenting a deal that was not palatable to either side, leaving the only option to revoke and stay in the EU...

A simple and effective plan, except the hope was reliant of the leave sentiment dissipating and evaporating as Brexit weariness took effect.

That might have been true if it was all orchestrated, except it hasn't.. and has set the tone for the people vs parliament situation that has evolved.

any election now under FPTP will return an overwhelming leave majority.. and this is a situation the UKs Parliament and the UKs constitution is not designed to deal with.. and therein lies the core issue now shaping the discussions between the UK and EU.

I can not help but feel that Johnson has Prorogued parliament (within the rules) to force a VONC that would force an people vs parliament election since under fixed term rules he can not call one himself, if there was a move happening it is that one...

Looks like Boris is going to push for a general election on Tuesday....
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 443451
09-02-2019 02:08 PM

 



Post: #20
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (09-02-2019 11:32 AM)

The EU Parliament isn't democraticaly elected it's members are selected. The only elected members are MEPs representing their country or in Britains case Principality. The have very little authority or influence on policy.
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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-03-2019 12:06 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #21
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution




So here's what I know after weeks of intensive reporting.

Let's start at the beginning. July 29 First meeting of Brexit War Cabinet - or EU 'Exit Strategy', or XS cmme in Downing Street, four days after Johnson's 'bin the backstop' statement to commons. /continues:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/11686...99456.html




[Image: NtJBweH.gif]

©®êå†ꂅ
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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-03-2019 12:43 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #22
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution




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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-03-2019 01:04 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #23
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-03-2019 01:13 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #24
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution


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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-03-2019 01:36 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #25
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
set the CC options to English auto translate



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LoP Guest
lop guest
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09-03-2019 01:52 PM

 



Post: #26
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (09-03-2019 12:06 PM)




So here's what I know after weeks of intensive reporting.

Let's start at the beginning. July 29 First meeting of Brexit War Cabinet - or EU 'Exit Strategy', or XS cmme in Downing Street, four days after Johnson's 'bin the backstop' statement to commons. /continues:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/11686...99456.html




Both sides are deeply disingenuous, the Remain side pretending they only want to block no deal with they want to revoke, and Johnson saying he is aiming for a deal when he is not going to get one...

the only option is leave/revoke..
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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
09-03-2019 03:13 PM

Posts: 28,285



Post: #27
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 513846
09-03-2019 03:19 PM

 



Post: #28
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
Really, do we have a constitution in Britain? Show me.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
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09-03-2019 03:31 PM

 



Post: #29
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (09-03-2019 03:13 PM)

In response to the first one, how many Labour will cross over, at least 50 MPs are in strong labour leave constituencies..

The second one is the Speaker is like an ex smoker he has gone from arch Europsceptic to Arc Europhile, never works out, and he will side with Remain.. that is a given.

The third is, they do have the numbers, only 180 MPs voted to leave some 480 voted to Remain, which is the reverse of the constituencies, which 480 voted leave and only 180 voted remain <----- Understand why Johnson wants an election and why Remain doesn't.

On number four, of course they will hold, they have been working towards undermining any deal and revoking the vote from day 1, this is their last chance so yes, it will hold.

As for Five, no Corbyn won't vote for an election, the Labour party would be squeezed like toothpaste between the Brexit Party in the working class regions and LibDems in the Urban regions..

As for Six, I believe the Remain side want to create a Peoples Parliament run by a Government of National Unity that excludes all those who voted to leave.. Kinda ironic really.. however they do have the numbers to create such a Parliament that takes the UK back into the EU.

Ultimately that is what will happen else the UK leaves the EU and would need to reapply to join like any other member state and accept the Euro etc... right now the Remain side can leave and continue to sit on the fence as they have for the last 40 years.

Still no matter which way it goes the losers will not give their consent to be ruled by the other side.. which really makes what is happening unimportant.
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Lakeofmarch
Kaat Naat, the Questioner
User ID: 513523
09-03-2019 05:29 PM

Posts: 6,973



Post: #30
RE: Brexit, the Tories, and the Constitution
Perfidious Albion does it again. I can't say I'm much surprised, through deception they wage war.

[Image: Britannia-Statue.jpg]

They will find many armies to test them, but none to resist.
They will come in their shining ships to conquer and destroy,
Barbarians of gold and feathers and serpents of fire.
-Aztec Century-
[Image: Figura-081.jpg]
Son Calenda,Juarez/Fudo Myoo
secretsun.blogspot.com
-NO8DO-
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