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Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Toxie
Registered User
User ID: 566312
02-23-2021 02:00 AM

Posts: 821




Post: #16
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
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Despite the great speed a CME travels at, optically we will have at least a several hour head start on it. Disconnect the mains to your house. Tell your neighbors when the alert goes though. Hopefully they will employ emergency phone alerts so people will know what to do.
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Sing-I'llSway
Equal Opportunity Skeptic
User ID: 578487
02-23-2021 02:29 AM

Posts: 6,337




Post: #17
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
The 14th Noa  Wrote: (02-22-2021 09:09 AM)


Okay so it's a weird video, lol...

As I watched it, I almost started to feel bad about how hard I was in my initial post, because this guy, for the most part, seemed legit and was citing legit sources.

But a few things seemed off, and then at the end, he mentions how he'll be keeping an eye on "earthquake activity" and, for me, that's just...that. (he even uses the term "magnetoquake", which is just....I mean, it's not a word. It is not a term. It is a made up word with no basis whatsoever in science.)

It's strange, because he seems legitimately bright. He's not all that woo. It's baffling to me, then, how he could believe the solar wind effects earthquakes.



There were a few terms used that I wasn't familiar with. So I did a bit of searching online and found this VERY academic article from 2010:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...09JA015116

"Magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit during high‐speed stream‐driven storms: Connections to the solar wind, the plasma sheet, and the outer electron radiation belt"


It was helpful, and I definitely learned a few new things today (so I guess I'm grateful for this thread...) But the article is VERY dense, lol...I'm relatively familiar with astronomy-terminology, but even I had trouble keeping up.

One thing I should point out, before I forget, noting the speed of the solar wind actually IS relevant to this topic. I understood that better after watching the video, and reading a bit online. My initial reaction was mostly due to the way the speed was presented within the first post of this thread. To me, it read, within that context, as if the speed of the solar wind was as "dangerous" as the speed of a train about to hit you.

But I was mistaken. As far as "threat" to the magnetosphere, the speed is actually important.


That said- HOW MUCH of a threat to our magnetosphere is this CME...?

One of the things that felt off to me about the video was the inference that the magnetosphere is somehow in danger of being overwhelmed because it is "energized" (frustratingly vague term.) This suggests that there's some upper limit to what our magnetosphere can take. There surely is.

But what is it? Exactly?

And how much energy will this CME be contributing to the magnetosphere's workload? Thus, allegedly threatening it (and us)?


The only thing I've personally read that would be a major threat to our magnetosphere would be a nearby supernova. Or a similar high-energy event. Way higher than a CME.

But this brings me to another of my problems with the video: the guy is kind of vague about WHAT KIND of threat the CME allegedly poses. This is why, I believe, the individual who made this thread did so with a bit of unearned urgency.

To certain people, this video could qualify (intentionally or not) as "proof" that we're all f**ked.

But no where in this video does the guy go into specifics about the amount of energy this CME could potentially be dumping onto the magnetosphere to compound the problem (at one point he just refers to the CME as "a wall of particles", which, technically, is what it is, but...)

That...matters. It's all that matters: How much energy, specifically, is possible for this CME to impart onto our magnetosphere? And is that even remotely close to the amount of energy required to do even mild damage?






I did find this paper online, also, from scanning just now, VERY dense and academic, but its title is literally:
"Necessary conditions for geosynchronous magnetopause crossings"
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...03JA010079



So if anyone's further curious about this subject and wants to give themselves a headache navigating academic vernacular, that's your link ^^^^^^^

I want to say also- I'm not sure about how the guy in the video uses this phrase: "...our magnetosphere already almost reaching geosynchronous orbit".

This sounded strange to me, because the magnetosphere envelops Earth. It does not "orbit" Earth. Ever. It's wrapped around the planet, and it's pretty dynamic, constantly compressing and stretching (as that paper I linked to just taught me.) I literally went and googled the term "magnetosphere in geosynchronous orbit" and got nothing. Not within the context Video Guy uses.

So I don't know. It sounded strange to me at the outset. And I could not find any substantiating elaborations on the term. So...I don't know. My gut tells me he's misusing that phrase. Or rather...he's possibly made it up? I don't know. It just doesn't sound correct. To me.


I think I'm just used to more professionalism out of astronomy content on Youtube. If you're going to claim "major sh*t" is allegedly about to go down (big and bad enough to allegedly "cause earthquakes"), you gotta explain...how.

This guy in the video, he does not explain.

"Anti-vaxxers":
IF the passports become policy, of course, feel free to hand me your grocery lists when I go to Walmart. No worries. We're all in this together, right? I promise when I come out with my own groceries I won't just hand you back your list and laugh. Promise.
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Bao2
Registered User
User ID: 576145
02-23-2021 03:32 AM

Posts: 12,539




Post: #18
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
I don't think democrats will be able to survive this

Tissue
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tamarack
lop guest
User ID: 556677
02-23-2021 04:30 AM

 




Post: #19
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
This is good place to start and subscribe to if you're interested in
learning about the sun and cosmic ray influence on quakes.



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Catseye
cats know they're cool
User ID: 577587
02-23-2021 04:38 AM

Posts: 240




Post: #20
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
we got a quake this afternoon in the Dominican Republic in Puerto Plate, 4.4


that's pretty darn rare for here
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YikkaFarius
Registered User
User ID: 564963
02-23-2021 05:51 AM

Posts: 1,828




Post: #21
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Sing-IllSway  Wrote: (02-23-2021 01:17 AM)
The 14th Noa  Wrote: (02-22-2021 09:09 AM)
Listen to this at the moment of speaking we are in a solar wind stream with sustained speeds of 600km/s

Tommorow we will be hit by a cme that was caused by the eruption of a filament the 20th.

This will happen at a time when our magnetosphere is already energized and close to geosynchronous orbits.

There is a high risk for quake activity and ground induced currents tommorow.

Must see video:





Quote of the day: Understanding the question is half an answer.

I guess the first thing I thought when I read this was that "the speed" of the solar wind is kind of...irrelevant. At least within the context of how speed usually matters in our everyday life.

For instance, the solar wind travels through space. There's no wind in space. And when it reaches our planet, it runs face-first into the atmosphere and magnetosphere, and that's that. I'm just saying- it's "speed" doesn't really "affect" us.

Also, it's absurd to suggest that the solar wind influences earthquakes in any way. It's just absurd.

Interestingly though I was just watching a video (by a Youtuber who produces content about legitimate astronomy named Anton Petrov) that briefly mentioned the possible risk of another "Carrington Event" sometime in the near future, after the Sun reenters its cyclical "active" phase.

I believe pretty strongly this is something the world's infrastructure should work at preparing for. Because another "Carrington Event" would cripple our society.

It would be actual "doom".


As for this particular CME mentioned in this video, I haven't heard or read anything about it. Although admittedly I haven't read too many astronomy articles this week. I've only watched a few videos.

So who knows.

I think I may look up this ejection which apparently happened on the 20th to verify whether the "doom" espoused in this video is legit. I'm skeptical.

I'm writing this post without having watched this vid yet. Usually, just on moral grounds, I have an aversion to giving certain people on Youtube "views". Although to be fair, I'm not certain if this person in the vid is a "space-doomer", or just an easily excitable enthusiast.

I'll watch it and see what it says. I hope he mentions the size of this allegedly dangerous CME and its trajectory. That would matter a lot more than its "speed".

Frankly, your post comes across as very Dunning-Krugger'esque. You should look deeper.

**just read your follow.

*Cancel culture disclaimer: I only use ethically harvested free-range sustainable taco images.
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2021 05:54 AM by YikkaFarius.) Quote this message in a reply
LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 578309
02-23-2021 06:02 AM

 




Post: #22
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
BLOWED UP REAL GOOD  Wrote: (02-23-2021 01:24 AM)


This is on march next week when Apophis could hit
CME could move the asteroid...
just saying
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Estrella
Forum Mascot
User ID: 559218
02-23-2021 09:17 AM

Posts: 3,416




Post: #23
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Are we dead yet?
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Diamond Breath
Unite them under the only god
User ID: 345546
02-23-2021 09:19 AM

Posts: 9,554




Post: #24
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Estrella  Wrote: (02-22-2021 11:04 AM)
GOOD.

Yea, fun. Can't beat my mother in law.
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2021 09:20 AM by Diamond Breath.) Quote this message in a reply
Kenshiro
Registered User
User ID: 578535
02-23-2021 09:30 AM

Posts: 1,241




Post: #25
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Sing-IllSway  Wrote: (02-23-2021 01:17 AM)
The 14th Noa  Wrote: (02-22-2021 09:09 AM)
Listen to this at the moment of speaking we are in a solar wind stream with sustained speeds of 600km/s

Tommorow we will be hit by a cme that was caused by the eruption of a filament the 20th.

This will happen at a time when our magnetosphere is already energized and close to geosynchronous orbits.

There is a high risk for quake activity and ground induced currents tommorow.

Must see video:





Quote of the day: Understanding the question is half an answer.

I guess the first thing I thought when I read this was that "the speed" of the solar wind is kind of...irrelevant. At least within the context of how speed usually matters in our everyday life.

For instance, the solar wind travels through space. There's no wind in space. And when it reaches our planet, it runs face-first into the atmosphere and magnetosphere, and that's that. I'm just saying- it's "speed" doesn't really "affect" us.

Also, it's absurd to suggest that the solar wind influences earthquakes in any way. It's just absurd.

Interestingly though I was just watching a video (by a Youtuber who produces content about legitimate astronomy named Anton Petrov) that briefly mentioned the possible risk of another "Carrington Event" sometime in the near future, after the Sun reenters its cyclical "active" phase.

I believe pretty strongly this is something the world's infrastructure should work at preparing for. Because another "Carrington Event" would cripple our society.

It would be actual "doom".


As for this particular CME mentioned in this video, I haven't heard or read anything about it. Although admittedly I haven't read too many astronomy articles this week. I've only watched a few videos.

So who knows.

I think I may look up this ejection which apparently happened on the 20th to verify whether the "doom" espoused in this video is legit. I'm skeptical.

I'm writing this post without having watched this vid yet. Usually, just on moral grounds, I have an aversion to giving certain people on Youtube "views". Although to be fair, I'm not certain if this person in the vid is a "space-doomer", or just an easily excitable enthusiast.

I'll watch it and see what it says. I hope he mentions the size of this allegedly dangerous CME and its trajectory. That would matter a lot more than its "speed".

Carrington event was started by a couple of fast moving cme's in succession.

Speed does matter my friend been watching space weather since 2007 and I can garantee you that it does matter.
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Kenshiro
Registered User
User ID: 578535
02-23-2021 09:41 AM

Posts: 1,241




Post: #26
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Sing-IllSway  Wrote: (02-23-2021 02:29 AM)
The 14th Noa  Wrote: (02-22-2021 09:09 AM)


Okay so it's a weird video, lol...

As I watched it, I almost started to feel bad about how hard I was in my initial post, because this guy, for the most part, seemed legit and was citing legit sources.

But a few things seemed off, and then at the end, he mentions how he'll be keeping an eye on "earthquake activity" and, for me, that's just...that. (he even uses the term "magnetoquake", which is just....I mean, it's not a word. It is not a term. It is a made up word with no basis whatsoever in science.)

It's strange, because he seems legitimately bright. He's not all that woo. It's baffling to me, then, how he could believe the solar wind effects earthquakes.



There were a few terms used that I wasn't familiar with. So I did a bit of searching online and found this VERY academic article from 2010:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...09JA015116

"Magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit during high‐speed stream‐driven storms: Connections to the solar wind, the plasma sheet, and the outer electron radiation belt"


It was helpful, and I definitely learned a few new things today (so I guess I'm grateful for this thread...) But the article is VERY dense, lol...I'm relatively familiar with astronomy-terminology, but even I had trouble keeping up.

One thing I should point out, before I forget, noting the speed of the solar wind actually IS relevant to this topic. I understood that better after watching the video, and reading a bit online. My initial reaction was mostly due to the way the speed was presented within the first post of this thread. To me, it read, within that context, as if the speed of the solar wind was as "dangerous" as the speed of a train about to hit you.

But I was mistaken. As far as "threat" to the magnetosphere, the speed is actually important.


That said- HOW MUCH of a threat to our magnetosphere is this CME...?

One of the things that felt off to me about the video was the inference that the magnetosphere is somehow in danger of being overwhelmed because it is "energized" (frustratingly vague term.) This suggests that there's some upper limit to what our magnetosphere can take. There surely is.

But what is it? Exactly?

And how much energy will this CME be contributing to the magnetosphere's workload? Thus, allegedly threatening it (and us)?


The only thing I've personally read that would be a major threat to our magnetosphere would be a nearby supernova. Or a similar high-energy event. Way higher than a CME.

But this brings me to another of my problems with the video: the guy is kind of vague about WHAT KIND of threat the CME allegedly poses. This is why, I believe, the individual who made this thread did so with a bit of unearned urgency.

To certain people, this video could qualify (intentionally or not) as "proof" that we're all f**ked.

But no where in this video does the guy go into specifics about the amount of energy this CME could potentially be dumping onto the magnetosphere to compound the problem (at one point he just refers to the CME as "a wall of particles", which, technically, is what it is, but...)

That...matters. It's all that matters: How much energy, specifically, is possible for this CME to impart onto our magnetosphere? And is that even remotely close to the amount of energy required to do even mild damage?






I did find this paper online, also, from scanning just now, VERY dense and academic, but its title is literally:
"Necessary conditions for geosynchronous magnetopause crossings"
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...03JA010079



So if anyone's further curious about this subject and wants to give themselves a headache navigating academic vernacular, that's your link ^^^^^^^

I want to say also- I'm not sure about how the guy in the video uses this phrase: "...our magnetosphere already almost reaching geosynchronous orbit".

This sounded strange to me, because the magnetosphere envelops Earth. It does not "orbit" Earth. Ever. It's wrapped around the planet, and it's pretty dynamic, constantly compressing and stretching (as that paper I linked to just taught me.) I literally went and googled the term "magnetosphere in geosynchronous orbit" and got nothing. Not within the context Video Guy uses.

So I don't know. It sounded strange to me at the outset. And I could not find any substantiating elaborations on the term. So...I don't know. My gut tells me he's misusing that phrase. Or rather...he's possibly made it up? I don't know. It just doesn't sound correct. To me.


I think I'm just used to more professionalism out of astronomy content on Youtube. If you're going to claim "major sh*t" is allegedly about to go down (big and bad enough to allegedly "cause earthquakes"), you gotta explain...how.

This guy in the video, he does not explain.

This guy in the video, he does not explain.

You need to understand that i'm not astronomer therefore my knowledge is limited when it comes to space weather here and there I will make mistakes and if you do find them I strongly suggest youo report them to me.

I do have something hwoever much more valuable than a phd and that's observing space weather since 2007.

Witnessed solar max and minimum on a daily bases.

But like I said i'm not an astronomer however if you fail to understand something as evident as space weather producing earthquakes then in my opinion you don't know anything about space weather at all or your just a troll.

I don't like to be lectured by people who know lesser than myself in general these are the attributes of fools.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 578558
02-23-2021 01:38 PM

 




Post: #27
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
tamarack  Wrote: (02-23-2021 04:30 AM)
This is good place to start and subscribe to if you're interested in
learning about the sun and cosmic ray influence on quakes.




This Bump

Suspicious observer is the channel name, this guy knows his sh*t, I've been watching him for years. Anyone who's says space weather doesn't affect the earth and cause earthquakes isn't paying attention. Or just blindly follows the mainstream talking heads.
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Samazael nli
lop guest
User ID: 572240
02-23-2021 03:05 PM

 




Post: #28
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Estrella  Wrote: (02-22-2021 11:04 AM)
GOOD.

GOODER
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tamarack
lop guest
User ID: 556677
02-23-2021 05:29 PM

 




Post: #29
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
Samazael nli  Wrote: (02-23-2021 03:05 PM)
Estrella  Wrote: (02-22-2021 11:04 AM)
GOOD.

GOODER

GOODEST
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tamarack
lop guest
User ID: 556677
02-23-2021 06:08 PM

 




Post: #30
RE: Warning a cme will hit us while we are still inside a solar wind stream! VIDEO!!
tamarack  Wrote: (02-23-2021 05:29 PM)
Samazael nli  Wrote: (02-23-2021 03:05 PM)
GOODER

GOODEST

A wise word for English language learners.
Don't try to learn English from a lunatic forum.
The comparative form of good is better.
The superlative form is best.
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