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Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
Natura Naturans
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User ID: 441875
08-07-2018 08:40 PM

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Post: #1
Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
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It has been 30 years since the alarm bell was sounded for manmade global warming caused by modern industrial society. And predictions made on that day—and ever since—continue to be falsified in the real world.

Erroneous Predictive Scares

Consider the opening global warming salvo (quoted above). Dire predictions of global warming and sea-level rise are well on their way to being falsified—and by a lot, not a little. Meanwhile, a CO2-led global greening has occurred, and climate-related deaths have plummeted as industrialization and prosperity have overcome statism in many areas of the world.

Take the mid-point of the above’s predicted warming, six degrees. At the thirty-year mark, how is it looking? The increase is about one degree—and largely holding (the much-discussed “pause” or “warming hiatus”). And remember, the world has naturally warmed since the end of the Little Ice Age to the present, a good thing if climate economists are to be believed.

Turning to sea-level rise, the exaggeration appears greater. Both before and after the 1980s, decadal sea-level rise has been a few inches. And it has not been appreciably accelerating. “The rate of sea level rise during the period ~1925–1960 is as large as the rate of sea level rise the past few decades, noted climate scientist Judith Curry. “Human emissions of CO2 mostly grew after 1950; so, humans don’t seem to be to blame for the early 20th century sea level rise, nor for the sea level rise in the 19th and late 18th centuries.”

The sky-is-falling pitch went from bad to worse when scientist James Hansen was joined by politician Al Gore. Sea levels could rise twenty feet, claimed Gore in his 2006 documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, a prediction that has brought rebuke even from those sympathetic to the climate cause.

Now-or-Never Exaggerations

In the same book/movie, Al Gore prophesied that unless the world dramatically reduced greenhouse gasses, we would hit a “point of no return.” In his book review of Gore’s effort, James Hansen unequivocally stated: “We have at most ten years—not ten years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions.”

Time is up on Gore’s “point of no return” and Hansen’s “critical tipping point.” But neither has owned up to their exaggeration or made new predictions—as if they will suddenly be proven right.

Another scare-and-hide prediction came from Rajendra Pachauri. While head of a United Nations climate panel, he pleaded that without drastic action before 2012, it would be too late to save the planet. In the same year, Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, predicted “global disaster” from the demise of Arctic sea ice in four years. He too, has gone quiet.

Nothing new, back in the late 1980s, the UN claimed that if global warming were not checked by 2000, rising sea levels would wash entire countries away

There is some levity in the charade. In 2009, then-British Prime Minister Gordon Brown predicted that the world had only 50 days to save the planet from global warming. But fifty days, six months, and eight years later, the earth seems fine.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/08/07/f...ate-alarm/

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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LoP Guest
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User ID: 442041
08-10-2018 01:03 AM

 



Post: #2
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
Well... yeah.

CO2 in theory causes a slight warming.

However the feedback and water amplification that were supposed to supercharge the effect never materialized.

Almost all the CO2 effects are logarithmic and without geometric increases in CO2 emissions the effects tend to plateau.

Since the models are past what is called the "knee" of the curve and rapidly going exponential - the difference between models and reality can no longer be hidden.
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Natura Naturans
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08-10-2018 01:05 AM

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Post: #3
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
Global warming is the biggest fraud in history – Dan Pena – Video




“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2018 01:15 AM by Natura Naturans.) Quote this message in a reply
Natura Naturans
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08-10-2018 01:19 AM

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Post: #4
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
Isolating the Impact of CO2 on Atmospheric Temperatures; Conclusion is CO2 has No Measurable Impact

https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/08/...le-impact/

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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LoP Guest
lop guest
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08-10-2018 02:00 AM

 



Post: #5
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
Bump
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LoP Guest
lop guest
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08-10-2018 02:02 AM

 



Post: #6
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
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Natura Naturans
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08-10-2018 02:30 AM

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Post: #7
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
LoP Guest  Wrote: (08-10-2018 02:02 AM)
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/?p...-64214-OTH[/i]

So you love big banks? You think they will tell you the truth? After ripping the world off for generations they suddenly want to tell you the truth?

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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conspiracyparty
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08-10-2018 02:32 AM

Posts: 1,013



Post: #8
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
Quote:Well... yeah.

CO2 in theory causes a slight warming.

However the feedback and water amplification that were supposed to supercharge the effect never materialized.

Almost all the CO2 effects are logarithmic and without geometric increases in CO2 emissions the effects tend to plateau.

Since the models are past what is called the "knee" of the curve and rapidly going exponential - the difference between models and reality can no longer be hidden.

slow down a bit.

are you for real?

and more simple english.
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2018 02:32 AM by conspiracyparty.) Quote this message in a reply
LoP Guest
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User ID: 442041
08-10-2018 03:44 AM

 



Post: #9
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
conspiracyparty  Wrote: (08-10-2018 02:32 AM)
Quote:Well... yeah.

CO2 in theory causes a slight warming.

However the feedback and water amplification that were supposed to supercharge the effect never materialized.

Almost all the CO2 effects are logarithmic and without geometric increases in CO2 emissions the effects tend to plateau.

Since the models are past what is called the "knee" of the curve and rapidly going exponential - the difference between models and reality can no longer be hidden.

slow down a bit.

are you for real?

and more simple english.

Well, the forcing effect is something like F = 2.55 ln (C/C0). The IPCC has it as F = 5.35 ln (C/C0) but the measured effect is much lower. F is watts and C is PPM

Over a 10 year period measured downwelling IR changed .2 as the CO2 level went from 270 to 292.

.2 W = 2.55 ln (292/270)

5.35 ln (292/270) = .42 W, which to most non-progressives is clearly not 0.2 W (progressives always "adjust" their answers so they don't know if they are wrong).

That is about 1/6th of the forcing in the climate model runs (they assume imaginary feedback and "water vapor amplification").

The other problem is that the IPCC RCP8.5 CO2 concentration for 2100 is 940 PPM.

The amount of CO2 emissions staying in the atmosphere has gone from 60% to below 40% and is still dropping.

At the current roughly 40 GT of annual CO2 emissions we will reach 460-500 PPM in 2100. Applying current fossil fuel availability estimates we won't even reach 460 PPM of CO2.

The 940 PPM number isn't even fantasy - it is delusional.

And I am about as real as it gets.
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Natura Naturans
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08-10-2018 04:16 AM

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Post: #10
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
10 Failed Global Warming Predictions That You Need To Know About

Prediction #1: Global cooling is the real problem
When the environmentalist movement began in earnest back in the 1970s, climate change was still a core tenet of true believers. Unlike now, however, they were more concerned about an ice age than a planet that was too hot.

Prediction #2: If global warming isn’t reversed by the year 2000, it will be too late to avert catastrophe

Prediction #3: We’ll be living in Antarctica pretty soon

Prediction #4: Great Britain will be almost snow-less thanks to global warming

Prediction #6: We only have 50 days to save the world from global warming

Prediction #7: Prince Charles says we only have 96 months to save the world

Prediction #8: The Earth will warm by 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit by 2025-2050
Prediction #9: Most species on the Earth will perish by 1995

Prediction #10: Pretty much everything in “An Inconvenient Truth”
“One of the first glaring claims Gore makes is about Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa. He claims Africa’s tallest peak will be snow-free ‘within the decade,'” Bastasch wrote. “Gore shows slides of Kilimanjaro’s peak in the 1970s versus today to conclude the snow is disappearing.

“Well, it’s been a decade and, yes, there’s still snow on Kilimanjaro year-round. It doesn’t take a scientist to figure this out. One can just look at recent photos posted on the travel website TripAdvisor.com,” he continued.

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/10-fai...edictions/

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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Natura Naturans
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08-10-2018 04:50 AM

Posts: 2,693



Post: #11
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
The WORST Heatwaves of ALL TIME!
....happened in the 1930's

[Image: high-low-temps-figure1-2016.png]

It is obvious the 1930's were exceptional, and not just in heat waves but record temperatures never yet exceeded. And yet the CO2 level was 1/3rd less than today. Does CO2 matter at all? Only our elite overlords and their propaganda mass media think so.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/c...mperatures

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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Natura Naturans
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User ID: 441875
08-10-2018 04:52 AM

Posts: 2,693



Post: #12
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
75% Of The World’s Sandy Shorelines Are Stable Or Growing!
Accelerating sea level rise due to global warming is supposed to eat away at the shorelines across the globe. However a recent paper published in the journal Nature here authored by a team scientists led by Arjen Luijendijk found that some 75% of the world’s sandy shorelines are stable or growing!

An analysis of satellite-derived shoreline data indicates that 24% of the world’s sandy beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, but 28% are accreting and 48% are stable. If Sea Level rise was real, why aren't more beaches eroding away?[Image: Beach-Shorelines-Growing-or-Stable-Acros...2018-1.jpg]

http://notrickszone.com/2018/07/11/new-r...r-growing/

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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Natura Naturans
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User ID: 441875
08-10-2018 04:54 AM

Posts: 2,693



Post: #13
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
Post: #1The Sixth Great Mass Extinction MYTH
Alarmist scientists like to scare the public with visions of runaway global warming, and they have a new threat to blame humans for, mass extinction. Trouble is, a REAL mass extinction kills a LOT of species, the Permian mass extinction killed 90% of all land and sea creatures. Humans just haven't done enough damage to rate in the extinction category, only about 1% in a century. And even that number may be way too high.

"The losses of the past century account for only about 1 percent of the roughly 40,000 known vertebrate species — a statistic that pales in comparison to the level of destruction seen during previous mass extinction events. Even in the least of them, between 60 and 70 percent of species were killed off. During the end-Permian event about 250 million years ago, known as “the Great Dying,” that number was more than 90 percent."
https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/20...e_not.html

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/17/p...xtinction/

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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Bao2
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08-10-2018 04:54 AM

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Post: #14
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
He Man is not going to like this thread absent of FEAR and full of LOGIC


Tissue
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Natura Naturans
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User ID: 441875
08-10-2018 04:56 AM

Posts: 2,693



Post: #15
RE: Climate Predictions Fail Miserably
New Studies Show Global Warming From CO2 a Hoax
It has long been established in the scientific literature (and affirmed by the IPCC) that CO2 concentration changes followed Antarctic temperature changes by about 600 to 1000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions throughout the last ~800,000 years (Fischer et al., 1999; Monnin et al., 2001; Caillon et al., 2003; Stott et al., 2007; Kawamura et al., 2007).
In contrast, two new papers cite evidence that the timing of the lagged CO2 response to temperature changes may have ranged between 1300 and 6500 years in some cases. It would appear that a millennial-scale lagged response to temperature undermines the claim that CO2 concentration changes were a driver of climate in the ancient past.

Studies Indicating The Temperature-CO2 Lag Was 600 To 1000 Years
IPCC (2007)

“Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature changes in Antarctica with a lag of some hundreds of years.”
Stott et al., 2007
Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming

“Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years.”
Caillon et al., 2003

“The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.”

And many more at the link:

http://notrickszone.com/2018/06/07/scien...ient-past/

The fact that it is well known in the scientific community that CO2 follows, not leads temperature, it must be assumed the propaganda about global warming caused by humans is a hoax propagated from ulterior motives. Those motives include profit by renewable energy companies owned by left wing billionaires, social control by controlling energy, and especially mammoth increases in taxation going to globalist government.

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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