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Warning Signs For Dangerous Tropical Season For United States
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
10-23-2018 05:12 AM

Posts: 19,453

Post: #166
RE: Warning Signs For Dangerous Tropical Season For United States
2018 now has max. ACE on record in E. Pacific - 306!! (normal 125)
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2018 05:13 AM by spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ.) Quote this message in a reply
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
10-24-2018 04:53 AM

Posts: 19,453

Post: #167
RE: Warning Signs For Dangerous Tropical Season For United States
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (10-15-2018 04:33 PM)
DAILY TROPICAL UPDATE: Disturbance spinning up in the Caribbean

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


A broad area of low pressure, called a Central American Gyre, is
centered over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between
78W and 82W. There is a medium probability that a tropical cyclone
may develop within this broad circulation as the system moves
westward toawards Central America. Regardless of tropical cyclone
development, this gyre will bring abundant moisture which will
produce heavy rainfall across portions Central America for the
next several days, including areas which have already seen heavy
rainfall earlier this month. This heavy rainfall will bring the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides over areas of
mountainous terrain. Refer to your local meteorological service
for specific information on this potentially dangerous weather

A cold front will enter the far NW and W central Gulf of Mexico
by Tue morning. Ahead of the front, numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the far NW and W central Gulf
beginning late this morning and increasing this afternoon. This
front will slowly shift southward over the western Gulf through
Wed night. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will
increase to minimal gale force in the W central and SW Gulf behind
the front Tue night through Thu night. Winds will diminish below
gale force by Fri. Due to the combination of the front with the
Central American Gyre mentioned above, expect enhanced shower and
thunderstorm activity over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Wed.


A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from
01N-12N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by
model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant
moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring from 02N-14N between 42W-49W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from 08N-21N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses
with the wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. A recent ASCAT
pass shows that the tropical wave is well- defined at the surface
with 25-30 kt winds from 16N-18N within 60 nm of the wave axis.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N-18N
between 49W-52W. It is likely that the tropical wave along 46W
will be merging with this wave over the next 24 hours. Expect
plenty of convective activity near and in between both waves.
Moisture associated with these waves is likely to enhance showers
and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles Tuesday into Wednesday,
and this activity will spread to the eastern Caribbean Sea during
the middle of the week.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 64W from 08N-21N moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico.
Scattered showers are noted over the northern Leeward Islands and
Virgin Islands. This wave is expected to continue weakening into
Tuesday as it moves toward the central Caribbean.


The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near 12N17W to 08N21W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from
06N30W to 07N43W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the
monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 14W-24W.


See Special Features section above for discussion of an expected
gale behind a cold front in the western Gulf Tue night into Thu.

An upper-level anticyclone over central Mexico extends an upper-
level ridge over the western and north-central Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge prevails across the northeastern and north-central
Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is over the north central Gulf
from 26N-28N between 88W-90W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the coast of NE Mexico from 22N-26N between 97W-98W.


Two tropical waves will affect the Lesser Antilles over the next
few days. See the Tropical Waves section for more details. Also
see the Special Features section for information relating to the
Central American Gyre.

A mid to upper level trough extends from 23N66W to the Mona
Passage. Elsewhere, scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
northwest coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of Colombia.


See above about the tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N59W to
30N66W, where it becomes a stationary front. The stationary front
extends from that point to 28N74W, where it becomes a dissipating
stationary front. The dissipating stationary front extends from
that point to near 27N79W. Isolated showers are along and within
60 nm SE of the front.

A 1024 mb high is centered near 30N47W, leading to relatively
quiet weather elsewhere.

For additional information please visit


spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (10-20-2018 05:52 AM)
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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (10-21-2018 11:59 AM)
Two tropical storms are swirling in the Pacific Ocean off Mexico, and one is forecast to become a hurricane and approach the country’s west coast in several days.

Tropical Storm Willa is the 21st named storm of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. It was about 255 miles (415 kilometers) south-southwest of the port city of Manzanillo Saturday night with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Willa would likely become a hurricane on Sunday. It was expected to remain off the coast through late Tuesday, when it could approach Mexico’s west-central mainland as a hurricane.

spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (10-21-2018 01:50 PM)
Tropical Storms Vicente and Willa could drench Texas next week

Those storms are expected to curve back east towards Mexico which means we'll need to watch the moisture from those systems closely all next week.

Our latest computer models forecast the moisture to move into Texas and produce potentially heavy rain. The moisture may combine forces with a cold front, potentially dumping several inches of rain over rivers that are already swollen in the Lone Star State.


spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (10-22-2018 02:14 AM)
Model guidance has been coming together for over a week now on the threat for a potentially significant storm system to evolve across the eastern US/east coast to end Oct. This has the makings of a classic east coast cold rain, wind event with possible snows across the interior.

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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ  Wrote: (10-23-2018 02:18 AM)

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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
10-24-2018 04:56 AM

Posts: 19,453

Post: #168
RE: Warning Signs For Dangerous Tropical Season For United States
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Hurricane Willa makes landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast

Powerful hurricane Willa has made landfall near Isla Del Bosque, Sinaloa, on the western coast of Mexico, approximately 50 miles south of Mazatlán.
The Category 3 storm will quickly weaken over the next 24 hours as it makes its way across the Sierra Madre range and becomes a rainmaker for northern Mexico and Texas on Wednesday.
But before that happens, Willa will bring life-threatening storm surges, rain and wind to residents on Mexico's Pacific shore, according to the US National Hurricane Center.

Willa, once a Category 5 hurricane, had weakened before landfall, but still had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 kilometers per hour).
"Life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall (are) spreading onshore," the US hurricane center said earlier.
After landfall, Willa is expected to weaken quickly as it runs into the mountains, and it will be a rainmaker by the time it crosses the US-Mexico border Wednesday.
Forming Saturday, Willa went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in two days in what the hurricane center called "explosive" strengthening. In one 24-hour period, its winds spiked by 80 mph.

Hurricane Willa Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018


LOCATION...23.2N 105.5W


The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Las Islas Marias.


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
inland Mexico near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 105.5 West. Willa
is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The
forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over
western Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Very rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 12 hours, and Willa is expected to dissipate on Wednesday

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is still occurring
along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern
Sinaloa and Nayarit. Near the coast, the surge is accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue within the hurricane
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening but
will gradually begin to subside early Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions will continue along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2018 04:58 AM by spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ.) Quote this message in a reply
spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
☇☇Vocem sine nomine audivit!☇☇
User ID: 350320
11-01-2018 06:32 PM

Posts: 19,453

Post: #169
RE: Warning Signs For Dangerous Tropical Season For United States
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