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This is how long we got
LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
02-15-2017 08:11 PM

 



Post: #46
RE: This is how long we got
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new()  Wrote: (02-11-2017 04:52 AM)
it's only numbers

I know it's crazy, it's all just numbers in an accounting system and we pretend it's more real than we are.

Think of all those billions people like Trump or Buffet are carrying around, and it's all fantasy, fiction.

1dunno1
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
02-23-2017 12:36 AM

 



Post: #47
RE: This is how long we got
Haha wow, here's one on total credit market debt.

Total Credit Market Debt

Q1 1972 TCMD = 1837.77 (billions)
Q1 2008 TCMD = 53346.60 (billions)

53346.60 = 1837.77(1+i)^36
29.0279 = (1+i)^36
log 29.0279 = 36 log (1+i)
0.04063377 = log (1+i)
1.09808 = 1+i
i = 9.8%

The general rate of increase for total credit market debt from 1972 to 2008 was roughly 10% a year.

Meanwhile over that time GDP never grew more than 4% that means our total credit grew by 31x but GDP only grew by 4x

(1+0.1)^36 = 30.9x
(1+0.04)^36 = 4.1 x

Or, credit outpaced GDP by 7.5 times, 750%

Whaat?

Jptdknpa
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
02-23-2017 02:07 AM

 



Post: #48
RE: This is how long we got
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
03-02-2017 07:55 PM

 



Post: #49
RE: This is how long we got
Update, looks like the fed will raise interest rates in March, with rate increases over the next year or so.

10 year treasury bonds have been about 2% higher than the prime rate set by the fed, and 4% rates will send the economy into another recession.

But, assuming continual GDP expansion of about 1.5% with 4% interest on our debt we bust in 2 years.

Debt Expansion = 0.085
Debt 2017 = 20,000,000,000,000
GDP 2017 = 1.70E+13
GDP expansion = 1.5%
Average interest on debt 4.0%
Allowable Percentage of Taxes to Interest 33.0%

Year Debt GDP Taxable Amount 33% Taxable Amount Interest on the debt
$ Trillions $ Trillions $ Trillions $ Trillions $ Trillions
2018 21,700,000,000,000 $17,255,000,000,000 $2,933,350,000,000 $968,005,500,000 $868,000,000,000 ok
2019 23,544,500,000,000 $17,513,825,000,000 $2,977,350,250,000 $982,525,582,500 $941,780,000,000 ok
2020 $25,545,782,500,000 $17,776,532,375,000 $3,022,010,503,750 $997,263,466,238 $1,021,831,300,000 BUST
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
03-10-2017 07:36 PM

 



Post: #50
RE: This is how long we got
LoP Guest  Wrote: (03-02-2017 07:55 PM)
Update, looks like the fed will raise interest rates in March, with rate increases over the next year or so.

10 year treasury bonds have been about 2% higher than the prime rate set by the fed, and 4% rates will send the economy into another recession.

But, assuming continual GDP expansion of about 1.5% with 4% interest on our debt we bust in 2 years.

Debt Expansion = 0.085
Debt 2017 = 20,000,000,000,000
GDP 2017 = 1.70E+13
GDP expansion = 1.5%
Average interest on debt 4.0%
Allowable Percentage of Taxes to Interest 33.0%

Year Debt GDP Taxable Amount 33% Taxable Amount Interest on the debt
$ Trillions $ Trillions $ Trillions $ Trillions $ Trillions
2018 21,700,000,000,000 $17,255,000,000,000 $2,933,350,000,000 $968,005,500,000 $868,000,000,000 ok
2019 23,544,500,000,000 $17,513,825,000,000 $2,977,350,250,000 $982,525,582,500 $941,780,000,000 ok
2020 $25,545,782,500,000 $17,776,532,375,000 $3,022,010,503,750 $997,263,466,238 $1,021,831,300,000 BUST

Bump
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
03-16-2017 06:42 PM

 



Post: #51
RE: This is how long we got
Bump to keep alive and from archive
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 344469
03-16-2017 07:26 PM

 



Post: #52
RE: This is how long we got
Nope, don't have that much time but keep patting yourself on the back for being so smart.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
03-24-2017 05:54 AM

 



Post: #53
RE: This is how long we got
LoP Guest  Wrote: (03-16-2017 07:26 PM)
Nope, don't have that much time but keep patting yourself on the back for being so smart.

I need a robotic arm to pat myself on the back while I type.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
03-26-2017 11:13 PM

 



Post: #54
RE: This is how long we got
I think the key to watch is the interest they pay on the debt, that is the percentage of tax receipts which is used to service the debt. I don't have a good resource to show you, but I just read today that the Dutch had invented government bonds (debt) and after they did they created a huge debt bubble and when the bubble had peaked the government was paying 68% of their taxes to service the debt.

We are nowhere near that, but in 2 years we could hit 1/3 of all taxes servicing the debt and in reality that could be close to the Dutch record because we are meeting the deficit for social security and medicare right now with tax receipts.

So when you add up payments for entitlements, with direct government liabilities to service the debt (interest) we could be close to 2/3s of tax revenues servicing our debt.

The Dutch government used government bonds to live beyond its means, borrowing money to fund everything imaginable– wars, infrastructure, and ballooning deficits.

But people kept buying the bonds, convinced that the Dutch government will never default.

Everyone was brainwashed; the mere suggestion that the Dutch government would default was tantamount to blasphemy.

It didn’t matter that the debt level was so high that by the early 1800s the Dutch government was spending 68% of tax revenue just to service the debt.

Well, in 1814 the impossible happened: the Dutch government defaulted


https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-...gle-21175/
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 334909
03-26-2017 11:37 PM

 



Post: #55
RE: This is how long we got
Eagle  Wrote: (02-02-2017 08:38 PM)
AND... The conclusion IS ,.... ?????

Tippng point IS ..... ???

CAUSE of collapse IS .... ???

Eagle

And Thank You. There is none, it's so subtle. Deer in headlights, frogs in boiling pot. Everyone came in the cauldron. Will they realize it?
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 398365
03-28-2017 06:51 PM

 



Post: #56
RE: This is how long we got
LoP Guest  Wrote: (02-23-2017 12:36 AM)
Haha wow, here's one on total credit market debt.

Total Credit Market Debt

Q1 1972 TCMD = 1837.77 (billions)
Q1 2008 TCMD = 53346.60 (billions)

53346.60 = 1837.77(1+i)^36
29.0279 = (1+i)^36
log 29.0279 = 36 log (1+i)
0.04063377 = log (1+i)
1.09808 = 1+i
i = 9.8%

The general rate of increase for total credit market debt from 1972 to 2008 was roughly 10% a year.

Meanwhile over that time GDP never grew more than 4% that means our total credit grew by 31x but GDP only grew by 4x

(1+0.1)^36 = 30.9x
(1+0.04)^36 = 4.1 x

Or, credit outpaced GDP by 7.5 times, 750%

Whaat?

Jptdknpa

eeek
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SkeptiSchism
Registered User
User ID: 397519
04-18-2017 08:32 PM

Posts: 2,711



Post: #57
RE: This is how long we got
Bump

Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicati...eation.pdf
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The ghost of capn´crunch
Registered User
User ID: 414832
04-18-2017 08:42 PM

Posts: 8,792



Post: #58
RE: This is how long we got
[Image: ouricebergismelting-1229412167117308-2-t...1422674814]

and because i am hard you will not like me, but the harder i am the more you will learn!
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SkeptiSchism
Registered User
User ID: 397519
04-18-2017 08:43 PM

Posts: 2,711



Post: #59
RE: This is how long we got
The ghost of capn´crunch  Wrote: (04-18-2017 08:42 PM)
[Image: ouricebergismelting-1229412167117308-2-t...1422674814]

If that is an iceberg, then I agree.

Lmao

Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicati...eation.pdf
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SkeptiSchism
Registered User
User ID: 397519
04-18-2017 08:51 PM

Posts: 2,711



Post: #60
RE: This is how long we got
[Image: YDyuHfO.jpg?1]

Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicati...eation.pdf
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